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Beijing has deployed its coast guard into the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past outlying Japan's territory as China escalates tensions over the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

On Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its vessels conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Japan but also claimed by Beijing.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the disputed territory but the recent developments occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a retraction from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

China claims the island as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “unification”. It has left open the military option. The island's administration and people categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An military assault by China would risk escalating into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the US and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Defense Operations

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was probably the maritime patrol, active near the island over the past 24 hours.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs operating near Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, seeming to travel particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are occasional, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said China had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. The island documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from China since the Japanese official made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Japan by stating that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other powers, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards the island.