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Two days to go.

The English side's first Test in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we look at where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

A lot of the build-up has focused on the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from English cricket describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and vice-versa.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a total of 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have not won since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth stages an series opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|