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In the course of the 2016 US presidential election campaign, Hungary's prime minister was notable as the exclusive European Union leader to endorse Donald Trump. This support came as no shock, considering the Hungarian leader's embrace of contentious theories such as the "great replacement" theory and the suppression of media freedom. Observers point out that Mr Orbán practically laid the groundwork for Trump's base, with former White House strategist Steve Bannon lauding him as a precursor to Trump.

Political Favors Before Hungary's Polls

Last week, amid crucial Hungarian elections just six months away, Donald Trump returned some political favors. With Orbán pursues a fifth term in office leading a nation he describes as an illiberal democracy, his Fidesz party is behind in surveys. An official trip to the US capital resulted in more than Trump campaign souvenirs; it obtained considerably more valuable campaign boosts.

Waivers and Fiscal Safeguards

Although before lecturing European nations on the necessity to eliminate all resource supplies from Russia, and threatening restrictions against nations continuing to buy Russian oil, the US president consented to allow a unique waiver for Hungary – the top consumer among EU members of Russian crude. According to Mr Orbán, the American leadership also agreed to provide a “financial shield” to Hungary's capital should it runs into any future difficulties, particularly since EU institutions continues to withhold large sums from the EU to Hungary on grounds of failures to uphold the rule of law.

The particulars of this deal remain somewhat murky. Yet Donald Trump has shown his inclination to assist like-minded partners when the US granted a a $20 billion loan to Javier Milei, the South American leader. Even though Orbán did not secure a campaign-energising Trump visit to Budapest, the Oval Office meeting nonetheless was a profitable day’s work.

EU Concerns and Geopolitical Stakes

In the corridors of the EU, Trump's actions likely further underlined the strategic importance of the coming election, prior to which the centrist challenger, the rival candidate, holds a solid advantage in the polls. European leaders have learned not to expect steady principles from the Trump administration, and have grown used to the Trump's efforts to belittle the European Union. Yet the waiver for Hungary – secured through an deal to acquire US gas and nuclear energy – flagrantly undermines the bloc's aims to eliminate Russian oil and gas by the target date.

• Starting in 2022, the largest EU buyers of Russian crude, the Hungarian and Slovak nations, have provided substantial funds to the Russian military campaign.
• At the same time, Budapest has often employed the threat of its veto to impede moves in Ukraine’s EU accession talks.
• As the EU attempts to forge a unified and effective strategy for backing Ukraine, and strengthening its hand in any later diplomatic discussions, the Hungarian leader's alignment with Moscow at the diplomatic table remains a significant obstacle.

Opposition Stance

The opposition candidate has refrained from promising a major policy shift on the Ukraine conflict, and directed his efforts on home affairs, while stressing the importance for Hungary to begin operating as a positive member state. Following so many years of trolling, EU officials can only hold out hope. Orbán's disregard to basic EU values, including the upholding of minority rights and the independence of civil society institutions, has remained a source of shame for the European Union. His ongoing blocking tactics regarding the Ukraine issue threatens to weaken its future security.